2021 Annual Market Review

2021 could be considered a strange year in the world of investing because it presented some new and/or unusual considerations for investors. The US stock market was up over 25% while the US bond market was negative for the year (a relatively rare occurrence!) Meanwhile, investors laid witness to the meme stock sensations (hello, GameStop); the volatility of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies; the broader introduction of NFTs (non-fungible tokens); and much, much more. The impact of global supply chain issues along with the continued pandemic furthered uncertainty for investors.

However, as is most often the case, those with a well-defined and diversified strategy were well served. They were able to tune out the noise, remain focused on their objectives, and stay committed to long-term success.

Market Review - Q3 2021

Review the quarterly market summary with performance data, global headlines, and commentary on indexing.

“Flexibility is one of the key differences between index investing and Dimensional Investing and where so much of our innovation has taken place. Because we weren’t beholden to tracking any particular index, we could harness the power of markets, even beat the indices. The protocols, systems, and teams we’ve developed—as well as the experience we’ve accumulated—have shown to be applicable to a wide range of strategies, from fixed income to value to international investing.“

Market Review - Q2 2021

Review the quarterly market summary with performance data, global headlines, and a conversation about inflation.

With the economy starting to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and investor concerns turning increasingly toward inflation, Dimensional Founder David Booth talked with Nobel laureate Eugene Fama about inflation and how investors should think about it in their portfolios. Excerpts from their conversation have been edited for clarity.

Free Us, Prius

On the heels of Father’s Day, I was thinking back on some of the wisdom imparted from my Dad. One piece happened to be a course on both life and money in high school.

It was on theme with the usual “just because someone else does, doesn’t mean you should.” Like many kids, I tried explaining that my poor grade was justified because the class average was also low, and even the smartest kids didn’t do well. Or that I should be able to stay out later because nobody else had to be home before midnight.

This lesson came when my dad presented me with a Coors Light, gave it to me, said it was all mine. As I took it from him and held it in my hand, I saw that he had put a strip of red duct-tape across the front that said “Price: $10,000.”

beer.jpg

That, he noted, was how much just one beer could cost me in attorney’s fees for getting myself into trouble. Not to mention the price of a lost scholarship or job offer or something else. He wanted to teach me a lesson before something potentially bad happened, something that would have the chance to compound negatively.

The pageantry of this lesson has stuck with me over the years. Through my own experiences, I’ve learned that decisions have consequences that can and will compound, both positively and negatively. This is true both personally and financially.

Recently, I was meeting with someone who said, “I really appreciate you giving me that book The Psychology of Money. There are so many good lessons in there. I even just sold my car!”

First, it is a great book with countless great and practical ideas. My copy has notes, highlighting and scribble littered throughout. Second, I said back to him, “What do you mean you sold your car?! I hope you didn’t do that because of me!”

There’s a chapter in the book where the author explains that no one cares what kind of car you drive. People may admire your car for one reason or another, but that’s much different than someone admiring you for driving that particular car. They don’t!

If someone pulls up in a shiny red Ferrari, the spectator is likely staring and imagining themselves driving that beautiful machine with flawless paint and their own hair blowing in the wind. They’re not gazing at the driver thinking how wonderful he or she is.

The takeaway for my reader was that he no longer needed the flashy BMW in the driveway. It meant nothing to him. He swapped that for a Prius.

This is someone who is in wealth accumulation mode. He and his family are focused on making the right decisions to set themselves up for future, long-term success. They want their assets to be helping generate wealth, not deplete it.

This was not a matter of someone who couldn’t afford to pay for the BMW; he could, but at what cost? After selling the BMW and paying cash for the Prius, he walked away with about $30,000 cash. He felt free, and his happiness actually improved.

We talked about how that money could be used. Maybe it helps towards the purchase of their next business, or maybe it’s invested according to their overall strategy and long-term goals like early retirement and funding education. Either way, that $30,000 will compound over time to put them in a better financial situation.

Note: this is not to say that Ferraris are bad or that you should sell your car.

Conversely, financial decision-making can compound negatively, like in the instance where an investor abandons their strategy, plan and goals in the wake of fear and uncertainty. Deciding to make wholesale changes to one’s portfolio after downturns in the market can be incredibly costly.

Let’s say an investor with $3 million has experienced a 20% decline in their portfolio due to normal market conditions. They’ve lost $600,000 on paper and their account is now worth $2.4 million. Moving to cash or making dramatic shifts in the portfolio at the wrong time could mean missing out on a market rebound, essentially locking in that $600,000 loss.

So while the portfolio may have come back to the $3 million mark had it been left alone, the emotional investor has just lost out on that rebound that can never be had back. That money is gone, and it’s a tremendous negative consequence because it’s not just the $600,000 today that stings. It’s also what that $600,000 could have become over the rest of the investor’s time horizon, perhaps 10, 20, 30 years or more. That could literally be millions of future dollars lost because of poor decision-making and the negative consequences that ultimately come with it.

Whether it’s the $10,000 beer, the Prius, or the fear, decisions have consequences. With the right frame of mind and clarity on what is truly important to you, those consequences can compound in an unbelievably positive way.

Investing Is Not A Game, Stop

Unless your New Year’s resolution led you to give up all news, social media and information from the outside world, then you’ve seen GameStop as the major headline in the news this week. It is a tremendous understatement to say the company’s stock has gone on a wild ride fueled by an online Reddit forum called WallStreetBets.

GameStop is a retailer for video games and merchandise and consumer electronics.. Good ol’ brick and mortar. The fundamentals of the company, like EBITDA, earnings per share, and other metrics, haven’t looked good for a while. That’s part of the reason there was such a bearish outlook from big investors and hedge funds who shorted the stock.

The purpose of this article isn’t to detail specifically what has happened with GameStop this week or why. There is plenty of great content that explains that like here, here and here. I encourage you to check it out.

Rather, it’s to highlight a few things that investors should know.

1.      What happened this week is not investing – it’s gambling. Nothing more, nothing less. You invest your capital in a company stock in order to purchase the future cash flows of that company. Nothing changed with GameStop to make those future cash flows more attractive. There’s no reason it went from a $1Billion market cap to $15 Billion market cap in a matter of days. People are placing bets using options trading, based on speculation, and/or what the crowd is doing. You’d be just as well taking that initial investment in $GME and plopping it on the counter at your favorite gas station and buying some scratch-offs. Seriously.

2.      Many people are losing. Sure, there’s the guy that claims to have turned $55,000 into $11 million. But there are many losers here, and not just the hedge fund managers that got caught in a squeeze. Even the retail investors and others who thought, “Hey, this seems like fun, let me jump on this rocket ship!” At one point, the stock was up more than 2,200% in about 10 days. (start planning for that tax bill!) Conversely, there are some folks who bought at the top and are down 30%, 40%, 50% in the same trading day potentially. Or the Robinhood users who got cut off from transacting freely.

3.      You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. There are some options contracts that have unlimited downside – let that sink in. Everyone wants the great return, but not everyone respects what you have to risk to get it. Whether you’re truly investing for the long-term or gambling with options on GameStop, you must understand this principle.

We’ll see what happens next with GameStop, AMC, Nokia, Blackberry and others. When the music stops, someone is going to be left holding the bag. You really don’t want that someone to be you, because let’s face it: what has happened this week is not how investing works. It’s a dangerous game many people are playing.

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas,” said Nobel Laureate and famed economist Paul Samuelson.

Investing is not a game, just stop.

Coordinate Your Capital

There were a lot of lessons learned in 2020. Things like how important it is to have a stockpile of toilet paper; that you can get through the valley and reinvent yourself and your business; and of course, being grateful for the people we care about and the relationships we cherish.

There were also lessons learned about financial preparedness for the unforeseen or unexpected. Here are 4 financial metrics you need to evaluate in the new year when coordinating your capital and how it is being used. All of these apply both to your business and personal finances.

1. An Emergency Fund is essential. This one is so simple, but it can be underappreciated and is often overlooked. However, if you needed cash in a time like 2020 and had the emergency fund, you likely rested a little easier. There was arguably no better reason to tap into that emergency fund than during the pandemic if you were struggling to keep your doors open and staff employed. Yes, the funding from PPP, EIDL, grants or other sources were a lifesaver, but don’t count on something like that always being available. You need to create that safety net for whatever may happen next time. Liquidity is access to cash or something that can be immediately converted to cash without significant loss of value. It’s imperative to understand what access to capital you currently have which could include checking/savings at a bank; a line of credit based on collateralized assets (on your house, investment account, etc.); or conservative investments like Treasury bills. There is no one-size-fits all approach to an emergency fund as the proper amount depends on a number of factors.

2. You should have a Budget that you review on a consistent basis. Whether it’s sophisticated or simple, creating a budget is guaranteed to help you improve your financial situation. If you’re just getting started, the first step is to capture all of the information on your income and expenses and group it in a way that is easy to understand. There are plenty of resources ranging from apps like Mint to an Excel spreadsheet. Next, understand what is coming in and what is going out (and where to) for a period of time, like the last 3, 6 or 12 months. Step 3 is to evaluate what you could do to help you achieve your financial goals. Finally, track your progress over the next 1, 3, and 6 months to see how you’re doing. This truly takes an ongoing effort, but it doesn’t have to be complex. It just takes a commitment and monitoring. You know the target numbers for your business. Personally, try the simple 50/20/30 method where 50% of your after-tax income is for fixed expenses (mortgage, utilities), 20% is for improving your financial situation (savings, investing, paying off debt) and 30% on discretionary spending (dining out, shopping).

3. Create a plan for how you will eliminate Debt. Sometimes debt is necessary, especially if it provides a long-term return. No one likes student loans, but they help provide an education which launches your career. A mortgage allows us to have a roof over our heads. A bank loan allows you to expand your operations. Conversely, many people accumulate debt that provides no real value other than short-term satisfaction. Buying a new wardrobe on the American Express or taking out a personal loan to go on vacation are not great decisions. Regardless of what debt you have, you should have a strategy for how you will get rid of it. Start by writing down what you owe on all debts, notably the lending institution, current balance, interest rate, minimum monthly payment, and payoff date. Then determine the best strategy to pay it off. Maybe it’s the “snowball” method where you pay off the lowest balance first, regardless of interest rate, in order to create some momentum. Debt affects all of us psychologically and impacts our decision-making and our stress. It does not have to be that way!

4. Invest in your future. Investment comes in many different forms (it’s January, so we all have a fitness goal for at least the next few weeks). Consider investing in two ways this year. First, invest in your employees through enhanced benefits. A company retirement plan can be an attractive benefit and aid in retention, especially if you are helping them contribute. There are several different types of plans that could fit your needs. A 401(k) that is properly structured can be a big benefit for both the Owners as well as the employees. There are many factors that can take your 401(k) from a bare-bones headache to a significant benefit, so work with the right advisors to help you in the decision making. There’s other types of plans, too, depending on your circumstances. Secondly, invest your savings to receive a return on your capital. Set a savings goal (see the part above about budgeting), and then establish a systematic way to have savings happen automatically via electronic transfer. Many investors fled to cash during the downturn in 2020 due to perceived safety but may have done more harm than good. You should have a healthy cash position as a safety net (see the part above about emergency funds); but your investments should have the long view in mind. Don’t worry about the noise of the day and what happens in the stock market over the short-term. Instead, maintaining a long-term perspective will allow you to experience the power of compounding returns.

Last year, we experienced how just one thing can dramatically impact all of us. That impact can have a domino effect personally, professionally and financially. You likely saw how your financial plan stood up against the unexpected.

Coordinate Your Capital: Consider a financial check-up and prioritize a stress-test of your plan to ensure there are no gaps that exist. Having the proper pieces in place financially to help you weather the next storm can be the difference between defeat and success.

Market Review - Q3 2020

Logic and data provide the basis for a positive expected value premium, offering a guide for investors targeting higher potential returns. There is pervasive historical evidence of value stocks outperforming growth stocks. Recently, growth stocks have enjoyed a run of outperformance vs. their value counterparts. But while disappointing periods emerge from time to time, the principle that lower relative prices lead to higher expected returns remains the same.

We believe investors are best served by making decisions based on sound economic principles supported by a preponderance of evidence. Value investing is based on the premise that paying less for a set of future cash flows is associated with a higher expected return.